LongViews

The pandemic’s historic toll on jobs

The pandemic caused U.S. job losses that are historic for their speed and scale. The impact is notable in various ways: The 22.3 million jobs lost in March and April of 2020 were the most jobs lost in the shortest time—even…


E-commerce by category over 20+ years

Retail e-commerce data show a dramatic shift online by category over 20-plus years — but nearly as insightful is how the picture is pieced together from U.S. Census Bureau data. The e-commerce data bring together three distinct sources: Quarterly data for…


Phillips Curve: An inflation-unemployment trade-off?

The belief in an inflation-unemployment trade-off is ingrained in macroeconomics, financial markets, and media. The trade-off is often expressed in various ways: Markets fear that if the unemployment rate gets too low, then inflation will rise. Macroeconomics has asserted that allowing…


Wages finally eclipse prior peak reached in 1972

Wages of U.S. workers—adjusted for inflation—have finally eclipsed the peak reached in 1972. The 1972 peak was eclipsed in 2020 partly because of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Business boosted wages in the face of higher employee risks, with wages…


The holiday sales track record over 25+ years

Volatility is one of the characteristics of holiday retail sales—with the focus here on stores that sell gift-type goods. These stores, in other words, exclude car dealers, gas stations, restaurants, food, and drug stores. More specifically, the graphic above shows that:…


Historically low price inflation

The threat of price inflation remains historically low compared with other periods over the more than 70 years that U.S consumer prices have been tracked. This is true based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as well as the Personal Consumption…