LongViews

Phillips Curve: An inflation-unemployment trade-off?

The belief in an inflation-unemployment trade-off is ingrained in macroeconomics, financial markets, and media. The trade-off is often expressed in various ways: Markets fear that if the unemployment rate gets too low, then inflation will rise. Macroeconomics has asserted that allowing…


Wages finally eclipse prior peak reached in 1972

Wages of U.S. workers—adjusted for inflation—have finally eclipsed the peak reached in 1972. The 1972 peak was eclipsed in 2020 partly because of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Business boosted wages in the face of higher employee risks, with wages…


The holiday sales track record over 25+ years

Volatility is one of the characteristics of holiday retail sales—with the focus here on stores that sell gift-type goods. These stores, in other words, exclude car dealers, gas stations, restaurants, food, and drug stores. More specifically, the graphic below shows that:…


Historically low price inflation

The threat of price inflation remains historically low compared with other periods over the more than 70 years that U.S consumer prices have been tracked. This is true based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as well as the Personal Consumption…