Why will the U.S. spending outlook remain unevenly modest despite sustained strong job gains in July? It’s true that the gains are an encouraging sign. They show that the job market is overcoming the disruptions—primarily labor-strike and weather-related—that dramatically depressed the…
U.S. job gains were strong in June after a weak May. What does that mean for the outlook for the consumer economy? Well, it means that the true growth trend is neither strong nor weak—and is easily disrupted by weather, labor…
In the summer of 2007, I used insights from two particular economic measures to warn of the recession risk that later became a reality by early 2008. Given the anxiety raised by the “Brexit” vote, it’s a good time to see…
The U.S. economy is showing growing vulnerability focused in certain state and local job markets—beyond the impact of a Verizon strike that artificially depressed the latest employment numbers. The job trends nationally and by state and local markets suggest that consumer…
The modest U.S. job gains in April reflect weaker growth in energy-dependent states that has become more evident despite improving growth in other states and metro markets. The job trends suggest that U.S. households will sustain growth in spending that will…
Strong job gains in March—especially in retail and food service—will keep the outlook steady for household spending, according to the latest U.S. jobs numbers. The job count increased by 215,000 in March. Five of the last six months have now registered…
The outlook for household spending got a big boost from strong job gains in February—especially in service jobs, according to a first look at the latest topline U.S. jobs numbers. The job count increased by 242,000 in February. Four of the…