The outlook for consumer goods spending remains positive heading into the back-to-school season given signs from key economic and consumer indicators—including mostly healthy retail sales by channel. The signs for the short term are distilled from the data storyboard below, which…
A surge in Q2 GDP led by consumers provides momentum to consumer goods spending heading into the second half of 2018, although signs from other indicators—price inflation especially—provide some reason for caution. The signs for the short term are distilled from…
The outlook for consumer goods spending remains relatively positive in the short-term—despite increasing headwinds from price inflation evident in the latest data—given signs from key economic and consumer indicators. The signs for the short term are distilled from the data storyboard…
The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter of 2018, driven to a large extent by a big slowdown in consumer spending. The results confirm a post-holiday return to less robust consumer spending (more here) and raise some concern about the…
The U.S. economy appears to be on track to sustain economic growth into 2018 based on insights from the latest GDP data through the fourth quarter of 2017. The outlook is particularly encouraging given the latest uptick in the data excluding…
In the summer of 2007, I used insights from two particular economic measures to warn of the recession risk that later became a reality by early 2008. Given the anxiety raised by the “Brexit” vote, it’s a good time to see…
Today we call it confidence or sentiment. It has also been famously described as “animal spirits” and more recently tied to matters of “trust” and “fairness” in the economy.¹·² Whatever you call it, there are psychological or behavioral factors that affect…